The real estate market continues to exceed expectations. There are more than 1M fewer foreclosures in the last five years, home prices rose in 96 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters, and Americans are sitting on tremendous equity.
Insights
“Policymakers now risk committing another policy error, this time by waiting too long to begin cutting interest rates. It is unclear why Fed officials feel it necessary to take this risk. After all, they’ve all but achieved their dual mandates of a full-employment economy and low and stable inflation.
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
“Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home price gains over the past 35 years . . . While we are not experiencing the double-digit gains seen in the previous two years, above trend growth should be well received considering the rising costs of financing home mortgages.
Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, S&P Dow Jones Indices
Forecasts
Goldman Sachs, Mortgage Bankers Association, Zillow, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and NAR all agree that home prices will increase in 2024. Looking back at the forecasts made in November 2023, we can see that the major players are more optimistic about home price appreciation now.
Rates
As the recent surge in mortgage application data has shown, following a drop in rates, buyers are anxiously waiting to jump into the market. The latest MBA reports on 30-year fixed mortgage rates show a decline in 2024 and 2025. We could see rates close to 6 percent by Q4 of this year.
Inventory
Data shows there was an uptick in the year-over-year housing inventory this winter (January 2024 – 3.15, December 2023 – 4.2%, and November 2023 – 0.9%) as sellers capitalized on holiday sales opportunities. With more homes available the average days on market for January 2024 increased to 36 days, up from 29 days in December.
Prices
Consumer confidence in home prices has increased. Now only 1 in 5 Americans believe that home prices will decline over the next 12 months. Looking back at the home prices for the previous year, we see that that prices rose in 49 states with only Hawaii showing a decline in home prices. That national average for year-over-year price appreciation for Q4 2024 is 6.4% with the northeast showing the greatest appreciation.
Sales
Existing home sales in the West are up 4.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile home sales in the Northeast were down 5.9%. New homes, in particular, continue to sell fast. In 2023, new homes were selling about 2.5 month after being completed.
Economics
According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, talk about a recession is dwindling and more economists are predicting a “soft landing” for real estate over the next 12 months. Overall the economy and job market are doing well and foreclosure rates remain low.
More Charts…
Do you love housing data? Whether you are a real estate expert or just learning about the market, this is the housing data to know. Enjoy 50+ charts illustrating the key metrics for the month.